Six
months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine.
The United States, NATO and the
European Union (EU) wrapped themselves
in the Ukrainian flag, shelled out
billions for arms shipments, and
imposed draconian sanctions intended
to severely punish Russia for its
aggression.
Since
then,
the people of Ukraine have been paying
a price for this war that few of their
supporters in the West can possibly
imagine. Wars do not follow scripts,
and Russia, Ukraine, the United
States, NATO and the European Union
have all encountered unexpected
setbacks.
Western
sanctions
have had mixed results, inflicting
severe economic damage on Europe as
well as on Russia, while the invasion
and the West’s response to it have
combined to trigger a food crisis
across the Global South. As winter
approaches, the prospect of another
six months of war and sanctions
threatens to plunge Europe into a
serious energy crisis and poorer
countries into famine. So it is in the
interest of all involved to urgently
reassess the possibilities of ending
this protracted conflict.
For
those
who say negotiations are
impossible, we have only to
look at the talks that took
place during the first month
after the Russian invasion,
when Russia and Ukraine
tentatively agreed to a
fifteen-point
peace
plan in talks mediated
by Turkey. Details still had
to be worked out, but the
framework and the political
will were there.
Russia
was
ready to withdraw from all of Ukraine,
except for Crimea and the
self-declared republics in Donbas.
Ukraine was ready to renounce future
membership in NATO and adopt a
position of neutrality between Russia
and NATO.
The
agreed framework provided for
political transitions in Crimea and
Donbas that both sides would accept
and recognize, based on
self-determination for the people of
those regions. The future security
of Ukraine was to be guaranteed by a
group of other countries, but
Ukraine would not host foreign
military bases on its territory.
On
March
27, President Zelenskyy told
a national
TV audience, “Our goal
is obvious—peace and the
restoration of normal life
in our native state as soon
as possible.” He laid out
his “red lines” for the
negotiations on TV to
reassure his people he would
not concede too much, and he
promised them a referendum
on the neutrality agreement
before it would take effect.
Such
early
success for a peace
initiative was
no surprise to
conflict resolution
specialists. The best chance
for a negotiated peace
settlement is generally
during the first months of a
war. Each month that a war
rages on offers reduced
chances for peace, as each
side highlights the
atrocities of the other,
hostility becomes entrenched
and positions harden.
The
abandonment of that early peace
initiative stands as one of the
great tragedies of this conflict,
and the full scale of that tragedy
will only become clear over time as
the war rages on and its dreadful
consequences accumulate.
Ukrainian
and
Turkish sources have
revealed that the U.K. and
U.S. governments played
decisive roles in torpedoing
those early prospects for
peace. During U.K. Prime
Minister Boris Johnson’s
“surprise visit” to Kyiv on
April 9th,
he reportedly told
Prime Minister Zelenskyy
that the U.K. was “in it for
the long run,” that it would
not be party to any
agreement between Russia and
Ukraine, and that the
“collective West” saw a
chance to “press” Russia and
was determined to make the
most of it.
The
same
message was reiterated by
U.S. Defense Secretary
Austin, who followed Johnson
to Kyiv on April 25th and
made it clear that the U.S.
and NATO were no longer just
trying to help Ukraine
defend itself but were now
committed to using the war
to “weaken” Russia.
Turkish diplomats told
retired British diplomat
Craig Murray that these
messages from the United
States and United Kingdom
killed their otherwise
promising efforts to mediate
a ceasefire and a diplomatic
resolution.
In
response to the invasion, much of
the public in Western countries
accepted the moral imperative of
supporting Ukraine as a victim of
Russian aggression. But the decision
by the U.S. and British governments
to kill peace talks and prolong the
war, with all the horror, pain and
misery that entails for the people
of Ukraine, has neither been
explained to the public, nor
endorsed by a consensus of NATO
countries. Johnson claimed to be
speaking for the “collective West,”
but in May, the leaders of France,
Germany and Italy all made public
statements that contradicted his
claim.
Addressing
the
European Parliament on May
9, French President Emmanuel
Macron
declared, “We are not
at war with Russia,” and
that Europe’s duty was “to
stand with Ukraine to
achieve the cease-fire, then
build peace.”
Meeting
with
President Biden at the White
House on May 10, Italian
Prime Minister Mario Draghi
told reporters,
“People… want to think about
the possibility of bringing
a cease-fire and starting
again some credible
negotiations. That’s the
situation right now. I think
that we have to think deeply
about how to address this.”
After
speaking
by phone with President
Putin on May 13, German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz
tweeted that he
told Putin, “There
must be a cease-fire in
Ukraine as quickly as
possible.”
But
American and British officials
continued to pour cold water on talk
of renewed peace negotiations. The
policy shift in April appears to
have involved a commitment by
Zelenskyy that Ukraine, like the
U.K. and U.S., was “in it for the
long run” and would fight on,
possibly for many years, in exchange
for the promise of tens of billions
of dollars worth of weapons
shipments, military training,
satellite intelligence and Western
covert operations.
As
the
implications of this fateful
agreement became clearer,
dissent began to emerge,
even within the U.S.
business and media
establishment. On May 19,
the very day that Congress
appropriated $40 billion for
Ukraine, including $19
billion for new weapons
shipments, with not a single
dissenting Democratic vote,
The
New
York
Times
editorial board penned a
lead
editorial titled, “The
war in Ukraine is getting
complicated, and America isn’t
ready.”
The
Times
asked serious unanswered
questions about U.S. goals in
Ukraine, and tried to reel
back unrealistic expectations
built up by three months of
one-sided Western propaganda,
not least from its own pages.
The board acknowledged, “A
decisive military victory for
Ukraine over Russia, in which
Ukraine regains all the
territory Russia has seized
since 2014, is not a realistic
goal.… Unrealistic
expectations could draw [the
United States and NATO] ever
deeper into a costly,
drawn-out war.”
More
recently,
warhawk Henry Kissinger, of
all people, publicly
questioned the entire U.S.
policy of reviving its Cold
War with Russia and China
and the absence of a clear
purpose or endgame short of
World War III. “We are at
the edge of war with Russia
and China on issues which we
partly created, without any
concept of how this is going
to end or what it’s supposed
to lead to,”
Kissinger told The
Wall
Street
Journal.
U.S.
leaders have inflated the danger
that Russia poses to its neighbors
and the West, deliberately treating
it as an enemy with whom diplomacy
or cooperation would be futile,
rather than as a neighbor raising
understandable defensive concerns
over NATO expansion and its gradual
encirclement by U.S. and allied
military forces.
Far
from
aiming to deter Russia from
dangerous or destabilizing
actions, successive
administrations of both
parties have sought every
means available to
“overextend and unbalance”
Russia, all the while
misleading the American
public into supporting an
ever-escalating and
unthinkably dangerous
conflict between our two
countries, which together
possess more than 90% of the
world’s nuclear weapons.
After
six months of a U.S. and NATO proxy
war with Russia in Ukraine, we are
at a crossroads. Further escalation
should be unthinkable, but so should
a long war of endless crushing
artillery barrages and brutal urban
and trench warfare that slowly and
agonizingly destroys Ukraine,
killing hundreds of Ukrainians with
each day that passes.
The
only realistic alternative to this
endless slaughter is a return to
peace talks to bring the fighting to
an end, find reasonable political
solutions to Ukraine’s political
divisions, and seek a peaceful
framework for the underlying
geopolitical competition between the
United States, Russia and China.
Campaigns
to
demonize, threaten and
pressure our enemies can
only serve to cement
hostility and set the stage
for war. People of good will
can bridge even the most
entrenched divisions and
overcome existential
dangers, as long as they are
willing to talk - and listen
- to their adversaries.