President-elect Donald Trump is about to resume a second term as president in January 2025 with such a slim GOP majority in the House of Representatives that it offers the party little if any room for error. Delirious Republicans reveling about their supposed “huge election mandate” may want to keep a lid on such unabashed glee. As final results are being tabulated from California, the party appears to have the smallest House majority in more than a century.

Republican Rep. Michelle Steel lost her Orange County seat, while as of this column, Rep. John Duarte is trailing his Democratic challenger in his Fresno-area district. If Mr. Duarte loses his race, Republicans would control nine of 52 House seats in California.

Gerrymandering activity in California, as well as similar activity in New York (19–7 Democratic to GOP seats), Illinois (14–3) and Massachusetts (9–0) mean four states will deliver 85 of the Democratic number of 215 seats. The GOP number could dwindle to as few as 220. In the Hawkeye State, Iowa, GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is up by 800 votes in Iowa’s Second Congressional District.

In the immediate days after November 5, it was apparent that Republicans would control both the White House and the US Senate, but there was some apprehension about whether the same would hold true for the US House. By mid-November, the question was settled: the party would control all branches of the federal government. For Republicans in the House, such news has turned out to be bittersweet. The party’s majority in the lower chamber is poised to be piercingly small.

While Republican leaders are likely breathing some small sigh of relief at remaining in the majority, the numbers are cause for alarm: As of last week, the party had 221 seats in an ever-shrinking chamber. In fact, due to its ever-decreasing small majority, the GOP has been unable to ratify its own partisan bills into law, which House Democrats were powerless to stop.

Notably, come January, three prominent GOP figures are out. Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida resigned last week and won’t return to the house; Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida vacating his seat to join Donald Trump’s White House team; and Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York is relinquishing her position to become the US ambassador to the United Nations.

It is important to note that in the immediate days after the 2024 election, House Speaker Mike Johnson supposedly pleaded with Trump to cease recruiting too aggressively from his House conference for administration positions, given this fact. “It’s a great problem to have. We have an embarrassment of riches in the House Republican Congress. Lots of talented people who are very attuned to the America First agenda, and they can serve the country well in other capacities. But I’ve told President Trump, enough already, give me some relief. I have to maintain this majority. And he understands that, of course, we’ve been talking about it almost hourly every day,” he added. I bet they have.

One message that many (not all) conservatives have failed to grasp is that, while the majority of voters who cast ballots did so for the Trump–Vance ticket, such support for Republicans is conditional at best. True, the party fared better in the Senate, gaining three seats. That said, they won each of those seats by narrow margins. In fact, the party lost races in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada despite party operatives believing such contests to be winnable.

Additionally, now that they have complete control, Republicans have limited time to get things accomplished. If congressional history is any indication, the party is likely to lose House control in 2026, and the partisan Senate map is shaping up to be an arduous one for them. Voters tend to stay home in non-presidential election years. The window for opportunity and accomplishment is radically narrow. Members’ attention turns to political survival in 2026.

Some of us ardent political junkies will avidly watch and wait to see if House Republicans work together or remain a fragmented group of political factions. Yes, the menacing Matt Gaetz will no longer be a factor. Nonetheless, other right-wing carnival barkers are still present to wreak political havoc and point fingers. Can Donald Trump and Speaker Johnson keep their subjects in line? Time will tell, but factionalism will mean the end of a functioning majority, a pyrrhic victory at best and guaranteed defeat in 2026.