Columnist
Paul Krugman has a problem. Well, not really. It�s us who have the
problem. He just has a provocative way of highlighting it. He�s
said it before and he repeated it again last week: What we ought
to do, we probably cannot do because it�s not in the political cards.
Why? Because while we may have a progressive majority in
the country and the more liberal of the two major parties controls
both house of Congress the political initiative is in the hands
the rightwing. Not
that they can enact anything they want, or even have a program any
reasonable person would consider viable, but because they can sabotage,
obstruct or, at least, dilute any really constructive proposals.
�Here
in America, the philosophy behind
jobs policy can be summarized as �if you grow it, they will come�,�
Krugman wrote last week in the New York Times. �That is,
we don�t really have a jobs policy: we have a G.D.P. [gross domestic
product] policy. The theory is that by stimulating overall spending
we can make G.D.P. grow faster, and this will induce companies to
stop firing and resume hiring.�
�The
alternative would be policies that address the job issue more directly,�
Krugman went on. �We could, for example, have New-Deal-style employment
programs. Perhaps such a thing is politically impossible now - Glenn
Beck would describe anything like the Works Progress Administration
as a plan to recruit pro-Obama brownshirts - but we should note,
for the record, that at their peak, the W.P.A. and the Civilian
Conservation Corps employed millions of Americans, at relatively
low cost to the budget.� Later in the column, he says �a large enough
conventional stimulus would do the trick. But since that doesn�t
seem to be in the cards, we need to talk about cheaper alternatives
that address the job problem directly.�
Of
course, he knows that even the less effective alternatives will
bring out the teabaggers and charges of - horror upon horrors -
�a government-run jobs program.� Maybe the question we ought to
be asking right now is: do we really have to settle for the cheaper
stuff?
Krugman
notes that �these aren�t normal times. Right now, workers who lose
their jobs aren�t moving to the jobs of the future; they�re entering
the ranks of the unemployed and staying there. Long-term unemployment
is already at its highest levels since the 1930s, and it�s still
on the rise.
�And
long-term unemployment inflicts long-term damage. Workers who have
been out of a job for too long often find it hard to get back into
the labor market even when conditions improve. And there are hidden
costs, too - not least for children, who suffer physically and emotionally
when their parents spend months or years unemployed.�
This
is not meant as criticism of the Nobel prize-winning economist.
He has been one of a handful of liberals in the media crying out,
Jeremiah like, about the employment crisis facing the country�s
working people, like University of California professor and former
Labor Secretary Robert Reich and fellow Times columnist Bob
Herbert. But obviously all the columnists in the world do not a
movement make. And unless an effective movement unfolds nothing
really effective is going to be done.
The
same day Krugman�s let-set-our-sights-a little-lower column appeared,
a similar view was expressed by Krishna Guha U.S.
economics editor for the Financial Times. In a column titled,
�Is this the Best Recovery that Policy Can Buy?�, he observes that,
�The US - and the world - has escaped a second Great Depression,
in large part because of extraordinary actions from the monetary
and fiscal authorities. But the US outlook is still pretty grim, with an anemic
recovery and unemployment - now 10.2 per cent - expected to still
be around 8 per cent two years from now.�
�The
Obama administration is penned in by the need to avoid a bond and
currency market revolt against giant budget deficits,� Guha. �The
idea of trading off long-term savings through entitlement reform
against short-term deficits - eminently sensible in theory - has
run into political limits with healthcare reform.�
�This
is not a counsel of despair,� writes Guha. �Extra efforts to boost
small business finance could meet the test. A jobs or investment
tax credit is at least worth debating seriously, as is an infrastructure
development bank. But the greatest payoff could lie in efforts to
deal with long-term unemployment - now, before it is too late.�
One
of the problems we face is the kind of leadership we get from the
executive branch of the government. Before he left on his Asian
tour President Obama indicated he is aware of the situation and
plans to come up with some proposals to do something about it. He�s
even planning one of his summits to talk about it. We can only hope
that it purpose is not to just lay out how bad things are but to
propose bold action. However, one of the problems is who he�s taking
advice from. It�s seems clear that from Afghanistan
to Honduras
everybody in this administration is not of like mind. In fact, they
sometimes seem to be working at cross purposes. American Prospect
co-editor Robert Kuttner maintains that �officials such as White
House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and Office of Management and Budget
Chief Peter Orszag are more concerned with cutting the deficit than
spending more money to reduce joblessness.�
�President
Obama's team made it clear months ago that he will brook no talk
of a �second stimulus� at a time when the first stimulus is under
significant criticism - from the right, to be sure, but also from
the left,� wrote Isaiah Poole on the Campaign for America�s Future
website November 13. Nonetheless, the coming White House jobs summit
�offers an opportunity to reset the political conversation on building
an enduring recovery for the 17.5 percent of Americans who are unemployed
and underemployed.�
Krugman
agrees. In a November 12 interview with
Alison van Diggelen on Fresh Dialogues, he said, �This jobs
summit can�t be an empty exercise� and that Obama �can�t
come out with a proposal for $10 or $20 billion of stuff because
people will view that as a joke. There has to be a significant job
proposal� if it isn�t several hundred billion dollars�OK, probably
it�s not going to be as big as the first stimulus bill and not going
to be as big as I think it should be� But I have in mind something like
$300 billion, you could do quite a lot that�s actually
targeted on jobs.�
�The
political right would rather focus the conversation on another number
- $12 trillion - which is what the national debt will be by early
December,� writes Poole. �Concern over the
deficit constrained the size and ultimate effectiveness of the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which has arguably kept unemployment
from getting worse but has yet to prove to a lot of people outside
the Beltway that it is actually improving the Main Street economy. If anything, our experience with that stimulus
plan - split between one-third tax cuts and two-thirds inadequate
spending on such items as infrastructure - tells us that our economic
malaise needed to be treated like a serious infection: Only a fast,
hard and consistent attack works; anything less allows the disease
to fester and become harder to treat.�
Hopefully
we won�t hear much more about Obama trying to do too much at once.
Even some liberals have repeated the notion that both time and political
capital have been wasted on the healthcare debate. Yes, employment
has to move to first place on the legislative priority list but
that doesn�t mean the need for labor law reform or climate change
action should be set aside. As former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer
put it to John King on CNN last Sunday, if the current members
of congress can�t work on more than one problem at one time we need
some new members of Congress.
Because
of rising joblessness the holiday season is going to be bleak for
millions of people across the land. I must admit that writing about
it week after week is depressing; I feel like I�m saying the same
thing over and over again. As we note, the heightened attention
to the crisis, and hopefully proposals for Congressional action,
the alarming jobless figures will be repeated over and over. The
employment situation is dire and from all indications it is going
to get worse.
Yes,
we need a jobs program, but that�s the easy part. The President,
writes Poole, � still has significant political capital, and he
can use it to build consensus around an investment economy agenda:
Rebuild the nation's public commons, fuel the transition to the
green economy, restore manufacturing as a critical building block
of restoring middle-class prosperity. Those who have reaped the
most from our economic policies should be asked to contribute the
most to its continued security.�
The
problem now is to make sure the ditherers in Washington
get the message.
BlackCommentator.com Editorial Board member Carl Bloice
is a writer in San Francisco,
a member of the National
Coordinating Committee of the Committees of Correspondence for Democracy
and Socialism and formerly worked for a healthcare union. Click
here
to contact Mr. Bloice. |