With the collapse of several banks and
insurance companies, the near bankruptcy of Detroit automakers,
a 50 percent drop in world stock exchanges and an almost complete
arrest of credit markets, an economic era has ended. It seems
almost an understatement to say that capitalism has entered a
new stage of a protracted systemic crisis.
The
crisis of the economy is at once, a crisis in ideology. After
30 years of worship at the shrine of the free market, Reaganomics
and other branches of conservative and neo-conservative thought
seem bankrupt and thoroughly discredited, if not dead - and not
only right-wing schools. Deregulation, privatization, intense
financial speculation on debt, the scaling back if not elimination
of government social spending, in a word, “neo-liberalism” has
reached its extreme limit almost bursting state-monopoly capitalism’s
seams and triggering a worldwide financial meltdown.
Many
causes have been attributed to the turmoil. Among the main contenders:
“financialization” or the capitalism-on-crack of the bond markets
and banks, a crisis of overproduction (too many goods chasing
too few dollars), and a weak “real” economy due to insufficient
allocation of surplus capital to productive investment. Some point
to objective processes, others stress mistaken policy decisions.
Clearly all were, to one degree or another,r at play. Caution
is in order, however. Objective economic processes, mistaken fiscal
policies or even chance economic accidents, taken together or
alone do not sufficiently explain the impetus behind the ongoing
calamity. Also at work was institutionalized racism in the form
of unfair lending policies that systematically targeted Black
and Latino homeowners, a targeting that may prove as deadly to
the financial system as the arrow that pierced Achilles heel.
Slouching
Toward Collapse
The
origins of how the unraveling began is to be found in capitalism’s
attempt to resolve ongoing crises. In fact, the neo-liberal model
itself arose in response to attempts in advanced capitalist countries
to maintain profits and find new markets. Faced in the 1970s with
a declining rate of profit, a fractured world economy divided
into “socialist” and capitalist camps, structural and fiscal crises
along with spiraling inflation, capitalism’s generals undertook
a re-forging of economic policy in the form of a wholesale assault
on the edifice of the New Deal. Keynesianism had run into a wall
- at least from the point of view of big capital - and policy
was now modulated to fit the maximum profit categorical imperatives
of the new period. International trade pacts were formed, unions
were rolled backed or held in check and fiscal policy was loosened,
as a new “post-industrial” service-oriented economy emerged.
At
the center of this process was a huge transfer of wealth to the
super rich, accomplished by means of tax cuts and a huge leap
in labor productivity, as the corporate class acquired an even
greater share of the surplus. For a period, neo-liberal economic
policy seemed to work, lending the appearance of stability with
low unemployment, relative labor peace and mild inflation, causing
some to wonder if capitalism had become crisis free.
Finance
capital began to play an increasingly dominant role. Stressing
this aspect Sam Webb writes:
“…what is different in this period of financialization
is that the production of debt and accompanying speculative excesses
and bubbles were not simply passing moments at the end of a cyclical
upswing, but essential to ginning up and sustaining investment
and especially consumer demand in every phase of the cycle.”
When,
at times confronted with cyclical episodes of economic instability
amid the bursting of speculative bubbles, monetarist solutions
were seen as a panacea. Strengthening money supply from monopoly
capital’s point of view may have helped but in contradictory ways
as wages, particularly after the recession of 2001, remained stagnant
or declined. At key moments in the cycle, crisis emerged. With
worker compensation nearly frozen, where was the purchasing power
necessary to keep the circulation process moving? Resolving this
problem was a chief preoccupation of bankers, CEOs and bureaucratic
policy-makers alike.
Indeed,
a study of productivity and wages over the last quarter century
reveals the acuteness of the problem. From the mid-1970s on, driven
by speed-up and new technology, productivity increased dramatically,
particularly after 2000. Pay however, remained stagnant. Tracing
patterns of pay and productivity, an economist writing for the
The Daily Kos noted:
“If
the lines [productivity and wages] had continued to track closely
together as they did prior to the 1970s, the minimum wage would
be more than $19 an hour. The minimum wage!!! (emphasis in the
original). So, in short: people had no money coming in in their
paychecks so they were forced to pay for their lives through
credit - either plastic or drawing down equity from their homes.”
John
Bellamy Foster and Harry Magdoff in an important article in Monthly
Review, titled, “Financial Implosion and Stagnation”, also
mention
the equation of productivity and wages:
“This
reflected the fact that real wages of private nonagricultural
workers in the United States (in 1982 dollars) peaked in 1972
at $8.99 per hour, and by 2006 had fallen to $8.24 (equivalent
to the real hourly wage rate in 1967), despite the enormous growth
in productivity and profits over the past few decades.”
Debt
accumulation was key. Speculative bubbles (in information technology
and housing) became a driving force in overcoming each new crisis
point. Low long-term interest rates had allowed large numbers
of people to purchase homes. With rising home prices, experiencing
growing debt - and lured by an intensive marketing campaign in
the ‘90s by Citicorp and others - families took out second mortgages
en masse.
“Until
the early ‘90s,” comments Robert Brenner at the November 2008 Berlin symposium
organized by the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, “Bubblenomics allowed
people to get wealthy they thought on paper. One hundred percent
of wealth is driven by borrowing and consumption, borrowing and
residential investments.”
Desperately
Seeking Higher Profits
Capitalism
hit another wall, however. During the boom, purchase costs rose
quickly, pricing new buyers out of the market. Standard mortgages
plummeted. In addition, low long-term interest rates meant low
profit returns for investors. A new crisis emerged. In these circumstances,
confronted with the need to maintain profit rates and find new
markets in conditions of declining wages, bankers deliberately
devised loan strategies with hidden fees and ballooning interest
rates that would greatly elevate the rate of return, targeting
unsuspecting and ill-informed consumers. Under the ideological
guise of George W. Bush’s “Ownership Society” credit would be
extended to potential homeowners with low incomes and allegedly
marginal or bad credit - the sub prime crisis was born.
The
proliferation of sub prime loans can be traced to the aftermath
of the dot-com bubble. After the bubble burst, speculators turned
to the housing market. As Yale economist, Robert Shiller, asked
in 2005, “Once stocks fell, real estate became the primary outlet
for the speculative frenzy that the stock market had unleashed.
Where else could plungers apply their newly acquired trading talents?”
As
it turned out, the supply-sider’s solution to the precipitous
decline in technology stocks achieved a momentary short-term fix,
but carried within it seeds of a more profound and destructive
crisis. The editors of the German magazine, Der Spiegel,
in a recent article spelling the displacement of US capital, argued that,
“once again, Greenspan flooded the economy with money and, yet
again, Wall Street started looking for a new market for its growth
machine. This time it discovered the American homeowner, convincing
him to take out mortgages at favorable terms, even when there
was practically no collateral.”
Capital
then flooded the housing market as real estate became a national
corporate mania. “These days, the only thing that comes close
to real estate as a national obsession is poker,” commented Shiller.
Brenner
suggested that this mania peaked in 2003: “Mortgage origination
(house purchases) peaks in 2003 … but the economy expanded through
2007, after which there is a decline.” He continued, “Normal mortgages,
called conforming mortgages in which people have to have a certain
income and put up certain collateral or down payment … plummeted
in 2003 and 2004.”
“What
saved the day? Just when the conforming mortgages were falling
non-conforming mortgages, sub prime or ‘alt A’ or ‘liars loans’
take over in driving the bubble.”
The
Federal Reserve, as suggested by Der Spiegel, was directly
responsible. Brenner confirmed this thesis; “Sub prime mortgages,”
he said, “became so possible, because Greenspan came in again
and reduced short term interest rates to one percent in 2003,
the lowest of the postwar period in the face of this problem,
which meant that for two years real short term interest rates
were below 0. And he did that because sub prime mortgages are
governed by variable interest rates.”
In
article at Portfolio.com titled, “The End of Wall Street’s
Boom,” writer Michael Lewis also emphasized the role of the new
niche market: “More generally, the sub prime market tapped a tranche
of the American public that did not typically have anything to
do with Wall Street. Lenders were making loans to people who,
based on their credit ratings, were less creditworthy than 71
percent of the population.”
The
growth of this niche market was spectacular. In 2000 there was
between $60 and $130 billion invested in sub prime mortgages.
By 2005 the amount had grown to $605 billion. This increase was
largely attributable to Wall Street banks, conniving with lower
level mortgage companies to devise schemes to make huge sums of
money by placing side bets on bad loans likely to default. They
did so knowingly, creating “exotic financial instruments” and
then short selling the market.
Lewis
described with precision the means by which the process was begun
- short selling the market - and uncovers just how deep finance
capital’s complicity ran. “The big Wall Street firms,” Lewis argued,
“had just made it possible to short even the tiniest and most
obscure sub prime-mortgage-backed bond by creating, in effect,
a market of side bets.”
Lewis,
himself the author of a best-selling whistle-blowing 1980s expose
of Wall Street, Liar's
Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage on Wall Street,
interviewed some of the key players in the sub prime swindle,
including a hedge fund’s primary trader, one Steve Eisman, who
realized what the big investment houses were doing and profited
handsomely from it. Lewis described Eisman as “perplexed in particular
about why Wall Street firms would be coming to him and asking
him to sell short.”
The
answer: profits. So profit hungry were the Wall Street traders
that they pushed these new mechanisms to their farthest limit,
creatively manipulating what Marx called fictitious capital. Lewis
noted:
“In
fact, there was no mortgage at all. ‘They weren’t satisfied getting
lots of unqualified borrowers to borrow money to buy a house they
couldn’t afford,’ Eisman says. They were creating them out of
whole cloth. One hundred times over! That’s why the losses are
so much greater than the loans. But that’s when I realized they
needed us to keep the machine running. I was like, this is allowed?”
Not
only did banks and investment firms create this phony capital,
there was ruling class complicity all down the line, a complicity
that included, in addition to the Republican standard bearers,
Democratic centrists like former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin,
then an executive of the recently bailed out Citicorp.
The
beginning of the end came in 2006, according to the editors of
Monthly Review: “The
housing bubble began to deflate in early 2006 at the same time
that the Fed was raising interest rates in an attempt to contain
inflation. The result was a collapse of the housing sector and
mortgage-backed securities.”
Frantic
efforts to throw more money at the problem, so often criticized
by the Republican right when applied to social programs, proved
of no avail. Foster and Magdoff write that the new chief US financial
officer, ever the student of Greenspan and Friedman opened Fort
Knox:
“Confronted
with a major financial crisis beginning in 2007, Bernanke as Fed
chairman put the printing press into full operation, flooding
the nation and the world with dollars, and soon found to his dismay
that he had been ‘pushing on a string.’ No amount of liquidity
infusions was able to overcome the insolvency in which financial
institutions were mired.”
Looking
back, even conservative New York Times columnist, Thomas
Friedman, claimed disgust in a recent op-ed titled “All Fall Down.” Doling out blame. Friedman believes responsibility
begins with
“People
who had no business buying a home, with nothing down and nothing
to pay for two years; people who had no business pushing such
mortgages, but made fortunes doing so; people who had no business
bundling those loans into securities and selling them to third
parties, as if they were AAA bonds, but made fortunes doing so;
people who had no business rating those loans as AAA, but made
fortunes doing so; and people who had no business buying those
bonds and putting them on their balance sheets so they could earn
a little better yield, but made fortunes doing so.”
Imagine
the audacity of comparing working-class families to Wall Street
titans! Everyone else was getting paid: the mortgage brokers whose
fees increased the bigger the sale with no penalty to themselves;
the banks who then bundled the loans up and sold them to other
financial institutions around the world again, seemingly with
no losses; the rating agencies who allowed it to happen. Only
working families were left holding the bag.
Friedman,
quoting Lewis, revealed Wall Street’s unabashed cynicism: “Eisman
knew that sub prime lenders could be disreputable. What he underestimated
was the total unabashed complicity of the upper class of American
capitalism... ‘We always asked the same question,’ says Eisman.
‘Where are the rating agencies in all of this? And I’d always
get the same reaction. It was a smirk.’”
Eisman
himself is unsparing in his criticism: “That Wall Street has gone
down because of this is justice,” he says. “They fucked people.
They built a castle to rip people off. Not once in all these years
have I come across a person inside a big Wall Street firm who
was having a crisis of conscience.”
Race
and the Housing Bubble
As
it turned out, a disproportionate number of the people they “fucked”
were African American and Latino families. Perhaps this explains
at least in part why no Wall Street insiders had qualms about
their activities or why in recent weeks the issue seems to have
almost disappeared from discourse on the economic crisis. Attention
to this highly important issue was given in 2008 when the Urban
League, the NAACP and the Congressional Black Caucus made it the
centerpiece of their annual conferences. As the fall election
campaign swung into high gear, however, save for oblique references
by the Republican candidate, John McCain, concerning the “mismanagement”
of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and more caustic comments by demagogues
like Ann Coulter blaming Black and Latino families for the crisis,
the electoral discourse at the height of crisis largely stayed
away from what may have been conceived as a racially charged issue.
Still,
as the main civil rights organizations charged in the summer of
2008, the racial origins of the sub prime crisis are difficult
to ignore. A cursory glance at some of the statistical highlights
of the crisis provides ample evidence. An excellent study authored
by United For a Fair Economy titled, “Foreclosed,” suggests several indicators, chief among them
the disproportionate numbers of people of color holding sub prime
loans: over 50 percent of all mortgages held by African Americans
fall into this category. The figure is 40 percent for Latinos.
These
percentages have grave economic implications: “Given that people
of color are a disproportionate number of the sub prime borrowers,
and that this group’s assets are mostly concentrated in homeownership,
the current foreclosure crisis can be considered the greatest
loss of wealth for communities and individuals of color in modern
US history.” Black and Latinos will lose between $164 and $213
billion for loans taken during the past eight years.
The
disproportionate numbers of Blacks and Latinos with sub prime
loans, while suggestive, serves as only partial explanation. The
central question is what caused it? Were the higher relative percentages
merely the casual result of ongoing poverty or was a more causal
underlying factor at play? Bush administration policy provides
important clues.
Sub
prime loans were allegedly established and encouraged as part
of government and corporate efforts to provide support for struggling
working-class families troubled with bad credit histories. Truth
be told, former President Bush himself pushed the program, believing
it would create “stakeholders” in an “Ownership Society” and expand
meager Blacks and Latino support for the Republican Party. In
the view of the New York Times, the Bush “pushed hard to
expand homeownership, especially among minorities, an initiative
that dovetailed with his ambition to expand the Republican tent
- and with the business interests of some of his biggest donors.”
Indeed,
“the business interests of some of his biggest donors” goes to
heart of the matter. While the sub prime program was supposedly
targeted at those with bad credit, and given that a large percentage
of minorities fill this category because of poverty, it would
seem disproportionality might be a normal outcome of a well-intentioned
program’s attempt to redress historic wrongs.
Good
intentions, however, was not point. At stake were big business
interests. A strong case can be made that banks deliberately connived
to target minority buyers in order to push profit margins, knowing
full well (from their own risk assessment calculations) that the
loans could not be repaid. Not only were the banks betting on
the defaults, but, in fact, were pressuring prospective Black
and Latino borrowers to take out such loans, leading the unwitting
customers like so many sheep to a financial slaughter house.
Brenner
nailed it:
“But
who would ever lend to them? Who would lend to them is as follows:
we talked about that fall in long term interest rates, this is
greater for borrowers, but if you are a lender or investor you
are in deep trouble because return on investment is really low.
And investors are in deep crisis and here is where sub-prime loans
bailed them out. Sub prime mortgages because they are so risky
pay high interest rates and became the basis for financial assets
that allowed investor[s] to appear to get high rates of return.”
Homeownership,
as it turns out, was not the major objective of the lenders. Despite
rhetoric promoting an ownership society, only a fraction of loans
were awarded to first-time homebuyers. And pubic officials were
well aware of this even before the crisis became full blown. In
the summer of 2007, in a speech before the Brookings Institute
as the credit markets began to seize up, Sen. Charles Schumer
(D-N.Y.) charged that:
“According
to the chief national bank examiner for the Office of Comptroller
of the Currency, only 11 percent of sub prime loans went to first-time
buyers last year. The vast majorities were refinancing that caused
borrowers to owe more on their homes under the guise that they
were saving money. Too many of these borrowers were talked into
refinancing their homes to gain additional cash for things like
medical bills.”
Lewis,
quoting Eisman in the Portfolio.com
article, revealed what went on in a case very close to home:
“Next,
the baby nurse he’d hired back in 1997 to take care of his newborn
twin daughters phoned him. “She was this lovely woman from Jamaica,”
he says. “One day she calls me and says she and her sister own
five townhouses in Queens. I said, ‘How did that happen?’” It
happened because after they bought the first one and its value
rose, the lenders came and suggested they refinance and take out
$250,000, which they used to buy another one. Then the price of
that one rose too, and they repeated the experiment. “By the time
they were done,” Eisman says, “they owned five of them, the market
was falling, and they couldn’t make any of the payments.”
Nor
was bad credit the primary factor for distributing the loans,
a myth conveniently circulated and repeated to this day. Schumer
again rebutted the notion, quoting none other than the Wall
Street Journal:
“Based
on the Journal’s analysis of borrowers’ credit scores, 55 percent of sub prime
borrowers had credit scores worthy of a prime, conventional mortgage
in 2005. By the end of last year, that percentage rose to over
61 percent according to their study. While some will have damaged
their credit in the interim, it’s clear that many sub prime borrowers
have the financial foundation for sustainable homeownership, but
may have been tricked into unaffordable loans by unscrupulous
brokers.”
Thus,
working-class Black and Latino families, over half if not 60 percent
of whom were eligible for conventional loans, burdened by several
years of stagnant and falling wages during a jobless recovery
were led by mortgage companies in clear and blatant cases of predatory
racially inspired lending.
The
racial overtones are evident in this swindle. But what made the
loans predatory? The United For a Fair Economy study provides
the following criteria: One factor is their marketing and sales
to inappropriate customers. Another is pre-payment penalties.
Seventy percent of sub prime loans had such penalties. A third
element was Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMS), which often carried
unexplained ballooning interest rates that increase payments by
as much as one-third. A majority of sub primes were ARMS. Yet
another condition was the exclusion of tax and insurance costs
when estimating the monthly payment for a potential home-buyer.
And finally the encouragement of ordinary borrowers to take interest-only
loans, where in the initial year or two only the interest is paid
on, after which the principal rates kick in, raising the cost
dramatically.
The
Bush administration was not only complicit in these practices,
but may have helped mastermind them. “The president also leaned
on mortgage brokers and lenders to devise their own innovations,”
according to the New York Times. “And corporate America,
eyeing a lucrative market, delivered in ways Mr. Bush might not
have expected, with a proliferation of too-good-to-be-true teaser
rates and interest-only loans that were sold to investors in a
loosely regulated environment.”
Might
not have expected? In actual fact, the Bush team aggressively
tore up regulations, intimidated and fired reluctant administrators,
litigated against states bucking their authority, taking cases
even to the Supreme Court.
The
Times continues:
“As
for Mr. Bush’s banking regulators, they once brandished a chain
saw over a 9,000-page pile of regulations as they promised to
ease burdens on the industry. When states tried to use consumer
protection laws to crack down on predatory lending, the comptroller
of the currency blocked the effort, asserting that states had
no authority over national banks. The administration won that
fight in the Supreme Court.”
When
they held a majority, Congressional Republicans, too, were deeply
involved in the act on behalf of finance capital, threatening
and winning a fight to clarify loan terms. In this regard, the
Times reported, “The president did push rules aimed at
forcing lenders to more clearly explain loan terms. But the White
House shelved them in 2004, after industry-friendly members of
Congress threatened to block confirmation of his new housing secretary.”
Why
the bullying, arm bending and other no-holds barred tactics? The
answer lies in the necessity of staying competitive and the imperative
to achieve maximum corporate profits to do so - on a global scale.
Der Spiegel quoted a German banker: “‘We need a 25-percent
return,’ or else his bank would not be ‘competitive internationally,’
Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann said, thereby establishing a
benchmark that would soon apply not just to banks but also to
automobile makers, machine builders and steel companies.”
Knowns
and Unknowns
As
is now well known, this drive to stay competitive contributed
mightily to the undoing of many of the economies in the developed
capitalist countries. Reduced consumption in the US, Japan and
Western Europe, is resulting in slowdowns throughout the globe.
In addition, as is also widely known, the racist toxic loans born
in the US were also exported abroad, precipitating banks runs
and other shockwaves to the world financial system and crippling
pension funds and even local governments in several countries.
Where
it will end remains unknown. Most bourgeois economists are of
the opinion that the economic crisis will grow worse before it
gets better. Economist Nouriel Roubini, an early predictor of
the financial chaos, argues a short term melt down has been averted
but is pessimistic about prospects for an early recovery, predicting
instead a long-term bottoming out of the economy. He writes:
“But
the worst is still ahead of us. In the next few months, the macroeconomic
news and earnings/profits reports from around the world will be
much worse than expected, putting further downward pressure on
prices of risky assets, because equity analysts are still deluding
themselves that the economic contraction will be mild and short.”
Marxists
thinkers, Magdoff and Foster, put things differently: “The prognosis
then is that the economy, even after the immediate devaluation
crisis is stabilized, will at best be characterized for some time
by minimal growth, and by high unemployment, underemployment,
and excess capacity.”
Roubini
contends that the current crisis was not caused by the sub prime
scandal but triggered by it, pointing to bubbles in other areas
as well, including commercial mortgages, credit cards and students
loans. In addition he contends: “these pathologies were not confined
to the US. There were housing bubbles in many other countries,
fueled by excessive cheap lending that did not reflect underlying
risks. There was also a commodity bubble and a private equity
and hedge funds bubble.”
Magdoff
and Foster on the other hand, point to long-term tendencies in
the economy toward stagnation and pose financialization, debt,
and consumer spending financed by it as a consequence of the underlying
weakness of growth. They write: “Since financialization can be
viewed as the response of capital to the stagnation tendency in
the real economy, a crisis of financialization inevitably means
a resurfacing of the underlying stagnation endemic to the advanced
capitalist economy.”
Whether
sub primes caused the great financial instability or simply triggered
the deepening of an already existing problem, one thing is sure:
its racist origins are undeniable. What Marxist theoreticians
like Henry Winston and William L. Patterson called the “Achilles
heel” of US capitalism - racism - has once again made itself felt
and is sending shockwaves around the world, helping close one
chapter in the class and democratic struggle and opening up another.
Magdoff
and Foster also employ the Achilles heel metaphor, albeit with
a slightly different emphasis:
“This
growth of consumption, based in the expansion of household debt,
was to prove to be the Achilles heel of the economy. The housing
bubble was based on a sharp increase in household mortgage-based
debt, while real wages had been essentially frozen for decades.
The resulting defaults among marginal new owners led to a fall
in house prices. This led to an ever increasing number of owners
owing more on their houses than they were worth, creating more
defaults and a further fall in house prices. Banks seeking to
bolster their balance sheets began to hold back on new extensions
of credit card debt. Consumption fell, jobs were lost, capital
spending was put off, and a downward spiral of unknown duration
began.”
As
the struggle around the recovery package begins, it must be pointed
out what are termed “marginal new owners” were largely Black and
Latino working-class families trying to make ends meet, targeted
by Wall Street financiers. Recovery cannot be achieved without
an economic package that bails out these homeowners, beginning
with a moratorium on foreclosures.
At
the heart of the crisis lies the unparalleled greed of the banks,
coupled with the declining wages of poor working people, exacerbated
by a racist social division of labor. The solution to problem
may well continue to lie in the repayment in full of a centuries-old
debt. To paraphrase Martin Luther King, capitalism’s promissory
note is still marked, “Insufficient Funds.”
BlackCommentator.com
Guest Commentator, Joe Sims, is the publisher of Political Affairs, from
which this commentary is reprinted. Click here
to contact Mr. Sims.
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