Why Republicans Could Prevail in the 2018 Midterms

But Trump’s management of the economy remains a big plus for his base and the ‘silent majority’ of Americans who are pleased by his economic performance so far.

The Republicans are experiencing the “best of times and the worst of times …” as we approach the 2018 midterms. Their leader, Donald Trump, is causing success and failure for the party. He has boosted them with his anti-immigrant, misogynistic, and racist tweets which are red meat to his and the Republicans’ base. Trump has locked into working-class white fears of the nation’s move toward becoming a pluralistic country where Americans of color are rapidly becoming a majority. Although these tactics are reviled in some quarters of the electorate, Trump has taken the heat for these outbursts which allows Republicans House and Senate members to largely escape blame.

In addition, with a robust economy buttressed by job and wage growth and a booming stock market, the Republican’s fervent base has been joined by the Independents (despite a decline of late), some moderates, and dissident Democrats who are attracted by these economic improvements. Furthermore, Republicans continue to march in lockstep behind the party agenda laid out by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and departing Speaker Paul Ryan. The Democrats are experiencing intra-party squabbles between its more liberal Progressive wing and the Party’s old-line leaders, and they continue to be unable to agree to rally behind a common plan for the future.

Another benefit for Republicans is that former President Barack Obama has hit the campaign trail for the Democrats. However, he was unable to increase the turnout of Democratic voters at a significant level in either of the midterms during his eight-year presidency or for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. His presence on the campaign trail was only effective when his name was on the ballot. Therefore, Obama is likely to further energize Trump’s base as Trump will most certainly frame it as an attack on him and them much as Hillary’s reference to them as “a basket of deplorables” did during the 2016 presidential campaign. That designation stuck and was the decisive issue in their significant turnout in her narrow losses in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin–in the low single digits.

Meanwhile, the GOP is gaining strength in its efforts to fight back against Voter ID suits in North Carolina and other states where their redistricting gerrymandering was challenged. Combining these strategies with their other underhanded political tactics may give them an edge to hold the House and the Senate by depressing the votes of minorities.

Nonetheless, the blue wave could still take place if the Democrats ever take their eyes off what the polls say and get back to old fashioned politics—identifying their voters, giving them a coherent message which incorporates their views and interests, spending millions of dollars and mobilizing millions of volunteers to get them out on election day as did Obama when his name was on the ballot. Even though the Democratic National Committee (DNC) claims to be employing these methods, only the Progressive candidates have been implementing them aggressively, which has resulted in their upset of two, twenty-year House liberal veterans, Mike Capuano (D-MA 7th District) and Joe Crowley (D-NY 14 14th District).

And the small group of House Democrats pushing for Trump’s impeachment is also an assist for him and the Republicans. Trump is playing the victim card, and that issue could be the determining factor in who wins the Florida, Georgia, and Maryland gubernatorial elections where African Americans are on the ballot as Democrats. Trump’s race and anti-immigrant tropes could push Republicans to victory in all instances as neither of these states has ever elected a black to that position.

Maryland, in particular, has a history of white Democrats not supporting Blacks for governor or the U.S. Senate despite no white Democrat being able to win either position without a substantial African American vote. If Republicans hold the House and Senate and several governorships, it may be time for voters of color to pursue the Progressives’ plan for electing candidates responsive to their concerns.