MINUSTAH’s arrival in Port-au-Prince in June of last year was a bit like letting air out of your lungs after holding your breath for several minutes.  It is such a relief that you think, momentarily, you might not have to hold your breath ever again.  That’s how it was in June 2004 – “at least it’s not the US marines, at least it’s the UN, at least it’s the Brazilians leading the force.” 

Peacekeeping operations are the weakest link in the UN system.  No peacekeeping force can succeed with a US/French/British-dominated UN Security Council directing its activities.  Under the big three, mandates to peacekeepers come in one of two forms – go and make it look like you are doing something about a horrible situation or serve as a belligerent proxy for the United States and make a horrible situation even worse.  I think MINUSTAH received both kinds of directives in its diplomatic pouch.

But, suddenly, things seemed to have changed.  MINUSTAH has a new mission – making Haiti safe for elections!  As if it received a shot of steroids, MINUSTAH is loaded for bear.  It wants to duke it out with ex-soldiers by disarming them and, with “the gangs,” well, by eliminating them.  The recent disarmament operation near Cap Haitien gave MINUSTAH a run for its money and netted it a laughable pile of almost-weaponry.  What a farce.  Where are the shiny M-16’s that the US sent to the Dominican Republic for the Haitian ex-soldiers to use in their “coup?” You know, the M-16’s that the ex-soldiers used to execute their fellow countrymen as they zeroed in on Port-au-Prince.  These are the weapons I want MINUSTAH to seize.  But, we all know the ex-soldiers are not stupid enough to produce these weapons and the UN is never going to look for them.  The ex-soldiers know what’s on the horizon. They know they are going to need all of those guns and then some.  They know that, just ahead, they have a showdown with Haitian self-determination.

And, hence, part two of the drama unfolds.  A few days ago I saw a headline that said “UN Begins Second Disarmament Operation.”  A chill went down my spine when I realized that the article was not about a second attempt by MINUSTAH to disarm ex-soldiers.  No, the next disarmament operation would be in Cite Soleil and the targets would be “the gangs.”  The first disarmament of the ex-soldiers was more than a farce; it was a cheap prelude to the real disarmament offensive – the disarmament of the Haitian people – disarming them of their right to self-determination, disarming them of their dignity, disarming them of their lives.

The US has done the math.  The number of Haitians that support Aristide is so huge that when they boycott the upcoming elections, a virtual sea of humanity will spread across the country and there will be no way to contain it.  That is, unless MINUSTAH surrounds the poor neighborhoods now and finishes the job the Haitian National Police (HNP) started. There is no way I can know for sure, but I speculate that MINUSTAH is going to assume that most males between the ages of 10 and 30 are gang members.  If this is true, many innocent people are going to die.  Dealing with the issue of whether you’re going after bad guys or good guys only becomes problematic when you kill a good guy.  At that point, I figure MINUSTAH’s only option is to bestow each good guy killed with gang membership, albeit posthumously.  And what about the women?  Already vulnerable to rape by the HNP, they could be subject to similar violence from the UN peacekeeping troops.  After all, serious allegations of sexual abuse have been lodged against UN troops around the world, including Haiti.

We thought it was bad enough when MINUSTAH used to secure the perimeter while the HNP went in and did their dirty work.  Now, MINUSTAH and the HNP will be in lockstep – true joint maneuvers – where the HNP is likely to take better advantage of MINUSTAH’s superior equipment and cover as is suggested in a recent Harvard University report on MINUSTAH operations.  A few days ago, an officer in MINUSTAH stated that Cite Soleil was like an urban jungle and that the UN tanks would not be able to get through the crowded neighborhoods – other methods would be needed to penetrate the slum.  Perhaps, bullets shot from helicopters late at night, Israeli-style, will glide more easily through those narrow passage ways.

And so, a Palestine is born in Haiti – another killing field.  A lot of effort will be spent concealing the evidence and MINUSTAH will see to it that reporters and human rights workers are denied access to the areas.  The HNP will do its part by carrying the bodies out in pick up trucks for disposal  in mass graves or, in the case of Cite Soleil, it might be easier to dump them in the ocean. 

As is often true of those who wear uniforms, MINUSTAH’S arrogance and blind belief in its superior firepower will be its downfall.  General Heleno, you must know that the resistance to the occupation has begun already – you can’t kill a sufficient number of people in the time allotted to win the game.  And, if you try, there won’t be enough soap and water to wash the blood off of your hands.  You can’t contain Haitian self-determination. 

And so the downward spiral starts and the situation will spin slowly beyond your control.  Before you can send word back to the Security Council that you are in deep trouble, your masters – US, France, and Canada – will have planted a few articles in key newspapers casting  aspersions on your leadership and you will realize that you are out on that limb by yourself.  But, the coup de grace will come when the US and France deprive your President, Mr. Lula da Silva, of his pay-off – a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Finally, General Heleno, you have another big problem.  There are thousands of people, like myself, who hail from your masters’ countries (and beyond).  We know what is about to go down in Haiti – we’ve seen it in Palestine, Iraq, Vietnam, and Guatemala.  And you must know that we have a copy of your playbook – after all, our governments wrote it.  You would be wise to assume that we are sharing that playbook with thousands more.  Each one, teach one. 

Shirley Pate is the Director of the Haiti-Cuba-Venezuela Project in Washington, DC