Democrats started this Presidential
campaign season with more than 20 candidates. Eventually, it dropped
to about a dozen, with, so far, only five of those "qualified"
to appear on the next debate stage. But debate performance doesn't
seem to matter much. Both Senator Kamala Harris and former Obama
cabinet member Julian Castro having had excellent debate
performances, and yet they have still dropped out of the race.
It's
a money thing. With just $9 million in the bank, Senator Harris said
she couldn't see her way clear to the nomination given her extremely
limited resources. Castro, matching Harris in grace and
reflectiveness, said: "It just wasn't our time." He, too,
felt he did not have enough money in the bank to compete. It almost
certainly would have helped these candidates qualify if they had the
resources, say, of former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who
pumped $100 million into his campaign in just one month!
In
fairness, though, it is essential to note that Senator Bernie Sanders
raised a whopping $34.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 alone.
Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former VP Joe Biden raised more than $20
million in that quarter, and Senator Elizabeth Warren came close.
The deadline for filing finance reports is later this month, so I'm
cautious in concluding based on news articles and partial reports.
Still, generally, those who have something to crow about put their
numbers out there early.
And
for some, money isn't the only issue. Did they meet the thresholds
the Democratic party set for debate qualification? Do they and their
advisors think they can win? What are the polls saying? So even
though Kristen Gillibrand had $14.9 million in the bank when she
dropped out of the race last August, she was not polling well and
failed to qualify for the September debate. Meanwhile, Senator Corey
Booker did not qualify for the last debate, but he is hanging in
there.
Although
Booker and entrepreneur Andrew Yang are still in the race, the
Democratic field is mostly white, and the January debate stage on
January 14, 2020, in Des Moines, Iowa is likely to be all-white. The
white folks on the stage may be "qualified", but I find
them no more qualified than, say, Julian Castro and Kamala Harris.
Their greatest flaw was the inability to compete in this
multi-million dollar cacophony of voices.
Neither
Harris nor Castro will suffer much for dropping out of the race.
Some say that Castro will run for governor of Texas. Harris has
three years more of a Senate term, and she is an effective presence
in Capitol Hill. I didn't like seeing either of them dropping out of
the race, but the loss is ours, not theirs. The way the election
cycle works, candidates can get a big boost if they can win either
Iowa or New Hampshire. But with the debate qualification set so
high, voters in those states will not have the opportunity to see
some great possibilities in action because they don't qualify for the
debates.
To
be sure, it was useful to narrow the field of candidates from an
unwieldy number to a more manageable one. And candidates all
appreciate the fact that they have more time to go in-depth answering
questions. Still, if it's an all-white debate stage, what does that
say about progress in this nation? What does it say about the
Democratic Party, which presents itself as a big-tent party that has
embraced diversity?
For
Democrats, there are three keys to winning this election. First,
Dems must engage "new voters," including young people and
first-time voters. Next, Dems must monitor the rules around
elections so that they do not discriminate and scrutinize the ways
people are removed from the voting rolls. Finally, and most
importantly, Democrats must place significant effort on getting out
the vote in November (and during the primaries), and new voters and
especially communities of color, must be targeted. Election
protection organizations have the monitoring issue covered, and there
are likely to be massive GOTV (get out the vote) efforts led by civil
society organizations. But what engages new voters? They must feel
that the political process reflects them. Already Latino voters are
concerned that Democrats aren't vying for their vote. And African
American voters think that the Democratic Party takes them for
granted.
To
engage new voters, perhaps Democrats need to examine their rules to
embrace more candidates of color. And they need to fight for
legislation that makes it easier to vote. Democrats like to call
themselves candidates of the "underdog." But when
billionaires like Steyer and Bloomberg come sauntering through the
door, concern for the underdog seems to go out of the window.
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