Democrats
are in a bind for the 2020 elections in trying to retain the House
majority, win back the Senate, and reclaim the Presidency. Given the
Party’s current internal friction and Trump’s strategic
and laser-like focus on his reelection, they are in for the fights of
their political lives. The President is comfortably ahead at this
point despite what the polls are showing. Unlike Democrats who
prevailed in the 2018 midterm races, no member of the 2020 crew of
presidential candidates has yet to evidence the necessary pizazz to
beat him.
The
current crop of 24 Democratic presidential aspirants is torn as to
whether it will pursue leftist, moderate, or centrist policies. As a
result, only 12 percent of the Democratic electorate is engaged in
their races to date. Thus the polls as to who the frontrunner is are
virtually meaningless at this point.
Moreover,
as stated in a previous column, there are only five really viable
contenders—former Vice President Joe Biden, Mayor Pete
Buttigieg, and Sens. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth
Warren, with Buttigieg coming in a consistent fifth, while the others
flip flop behind Biden who has led the field since entering the race.
Others
may rise and/or enter the race, as has activist Tom Steyer, which
could change the dynamics as we move forward. But the ultimate
nominee is most likely to emerge from the five, neither of whom is
currently positioned to defeat Trump.
The
most pressing issue for the Democrats is the asymmetrical reelection
campaign strategies of President Donald John Trump who is redeploying
and upgrading the xenophobic, anti-immigrant, isolationist tactics he
rode to victory in 2016. Democrats are again like deer in the
headlights as they were in 2000 when George W. Bush pulled a rabbit
out of the hat to assemble the necessary 270 electoral votes to
become President.
The
deciding 536 ballots came from Florida with the assistance of his
brother Jeb, then Governor, the Republican Secretary of State, and
the U.S. Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision with the fifth vote provided
by the Court’s lone African American Justice Clarence Thomas,
the controversial appointment by President W. Bush’s father,
former President George H.W. Bush.
Then
as now, the Democrats were convinced such shenanigans could not
happen a second time in 2004, and they did not. While they focused
on Florida, President W. Bush collaborated with elected Republican
and political operatives in Ohio to garner the state’s 18
electoral votes to ensure him a second term in another razor thin
election.
In
Ohio, voting machines, under the direction of Secretary of State,
Kenneth Blackwell, the first African American elected to that office,
mysteriously malfunctioned in overwhelmingly African American
neighborhoods on Election Day, delivering the state to President Bush
by an approximately 100,000 vote margin.
While
Democrats are fixated on the electoral votes in Michigan,
Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2020, which put Trump over the top in
2016, Trump is revving up his voters in the aforementioned states and
targeting other traditionally Democratic voting states: Minnesota,
New Hampshire, Virginia, etc. Like former President Obama in 2008
and 2012, he is running a 50 state campaign, and he will have more
than enough cash on hand to be successful.
Trump’s
recent racist and vile attacks on the “Squad” of
ultra-progressive Democrats of color—Congresswomen
Alexandria-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, and Rashida
Tlaib—telling them to “… go back to where they
came from” is spearheading his current approach.
Although they are all American citizens, with only one of them
having been born outside of the country, this tactic is energizing
his supporters who appreciate his vile assaults on these “others,”
who are representative of the individuals who make them uncomfortable
in a nation that is seeing its demographic profile become less white.
Trump
has promised conservative, moderate, and independent whites, both
Republicans and Democrats, that he will make America white again. He
is providing visible examples of his efforts to do so: the caging of
Hispanic children and adults at the border in putrid conditions which
have been widely televised and the highly publicized raids on
undocumented U.S. residents. Although the latter yielded a
relatively small number of actual deportations, the hype surrounding
these actions is a key element of his get-out-the-vote (GOTV)
initiatives.
In
addition, Trump has also been able to garner a sliver of minorities,
as reflected in his 2016 vote—8 percent of African Americans,
approximately 29 percent of Hispanics (which some Hispanic leaders
dispute), 14 percent of Asians, and low single digits of Native
Americans. This collective support of minority voters could give him
an edge in several increasingly diverse Democratic states in 2020
with forceful GOTV schemes.
Many
Democrats see Trump’s antics as enough to invigorate the
Democratic base to come out in 2020, but they are not. They did not
stimulate a sufficient Democratic turnout in 2016, and they alone
will not be enough to do so in 2020. Democrats need to organize,
organize, and organize their voters some more, as they did in 2018,
if they are to have any chance of winning the Presidency, retaining
the House, or reclaiming the Senate which appears as of now out of
reach.
The
intra-party fractures, between the “Squad” and the
remainder of the Democratic caucus, could be the death knell of
Democrats’ chances to be victorious in their political races.
While the liberal-oriented broadcast media is preoccupied with
commentary on President Trump’s racist tweets and tropes, they
are, perhaps, unwittingly motivating Trump voters to go to the polls
enmasse. Democrats are assuming that their supporters will come out
and vote in huge numbers as a result of Trump’s behavior, but
history suggests that will not be the case.
Democrats
are also hoping that the upcoming Capitol Hill testimony of former
Special Counsel Robert Mueller and the approaching trial of sexual
predator, multimillionaire Jeffrey Epstein, Trump’s former
buddy, will also tilt elections in their favor. That could be the
case but in the in the meantime, they need to unify the Party, coach
up their contestants, and organize their constituents.
The
Russians remain at the ready to help Trump again, so the Democrats
need to double-down in all three areas.
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