The April unemployment rate, at 3.6
percent, is at its lowest rate since December 1969. Payroll
employment increased by more than 250,000, outperforming expectations
and reversing the disappointing job creation numbers of last month.
First quarter growth was reported at 3.2 percent, a robust figure
that exceeds estimates, earlier this year, that growth would be
somewhat slower. This perhaps gives the man who lives in the House
that Enslaved People Built something to crow about since he so enjoys
crowing. But many economists are waiting for the other shoe to drop,
having workshops and forums about the coming recession. And as
positive as the numbers seem, there are always gaps and inequities
reflected in the fine print.
Take
the unemployment rate. It declined overall, and for adult men and
women, whites, Asians and Hispanics. At the same time, the
unemployment rates for African Americans and teenagers were
unchanged. The Black unemployment rate, at 6.7 percent, is more than
twice the white rate of 3.1 percent. This ratio of 2.16 percent is
higher than the usual 2:1 unemployment rate, widening inequality.
Should African Americans really celebrate a strong labor market when
so many are sidelined from it? Despite claims of economic
improvement and an improvement in some of the indicators, the fact
that others remain stagnant is telling. For example, 1.2 million
people have been out of work for more than half a year. They
represent one in five of the unemployed. The number may seem small,
but the persistence of unemployment for some individuals should be
troubling for those who make public policy.
The
number of people who are considered "marginally attached"
to the labor force, which means that they'd work if they could find
work, but they've ceased to look, is the same as it was this time
last year. These marginally attached workers include discouraged
workers, and there are nearly half a million of them, again the same
as last year. With these numbers being at the same level as they
were a year ago, there is an indication that the 3.6 percent
unemployment rate that is being hailed as so historic is a false
indicator of progress. While employers are clearly hiring, they
aren't hiring enough people to make those at the bottom confident
enough to look for work!
The
labor force participation rate is also falling, again suggesting that
our "strong economy" is not pulling enough more people into
the labor market. Instead, some are leaving! Why? Even though
wages grew at 3.2 percent last month, which is more than they
increased last year, they have not yet reached the 3.5 percent level
that the Federal Reserve Bank would consider healthy. Thus, the Fed
indicated that they change the interest rate, although 45 has pushed
for a full percentage point drop in the interest. I'm not sure what
part of the Fed's independence he fails to understand!
The
Fed's decision to hold interest rates constant is partly a result of
weaknesses in the first quarter growth report. It's always good news
when the growth rate is more than 3 percent, but consumer spending is
down for the third straight quarter. While the words "government
shutdown" have not been uttered recently, the 2018-2019 35-day
shutdown clearly had some impact on consumer spending. Many expected
that purchases deferred in January and February might be realized in
March, but too many consumers who are still recovering from the
shutdown and many, who are not government employees but contractors,
who lost roughly 12 percent of their annual income. They won't be
doing much discretionary spending this year!
How
strong is our economy? It is undoubtedly stronger than it was a year
ago, but it's not as strong as some claim that it is. Labor market
weaknesses and inequality are of particular concern to African
Americans. Companies are hiring, but they aren't hiring enough
African Americans to close the unemployment rate gap. There is
legislation that might improve the economic status of African
Americans. HR 7, the Paycheck Fairness Act, would provide remedies
to close the gender pay gap. Congressional Black Caucus member Bobby
Scott (D-VA) introduced the Raise the Wage Act, HR 582. It would
provide increases in the federal minimum wage to $15.00 by 2024.
According to the Economic Policy Institute, the legislation would
give African American workers a 38 percent pay increase (compared to
23 percent for white workers). And when workers earn more, they can
spend more, strengthening economic growth.
Whenever
you hear the words "strong economy," think of the folks at
the bottom. While the top one percent are certainly benefiting from
growth and expansion, those at the bottom haven't yet benefited.
Indeed, some have yet to recover from the Great Recession. Why
aren't the needs of those on the bottom, those who are poor (the data
says 40 million people, but Rev. William Barber says it's more like
140 million) significant enough to address?
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