A
careful assessment of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates has
revealed that there is a lack of ‘Wow,’ - significant
feelings of admiration, delight, and excitement - about the more than
20 announced and/or rumored candidates for the office. Yet, recent
polls are showing that 54% of the Democratic base has yet to line up
behind a specific candidate, which should concern those who want to
defeat Trump.
Even
so, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has declared that
candidates who
have “earned
at least 1 percent of the vote in three national or
early-primary-state polls conducted by qualifying pollsters or who
have received donations from at least 65,000 unique donors, including
at least 200 individual donors in at least 20 states” have
qualified to be on the stage for the first two presidential debates.
So far,
“16
candidates
have now met at least one of the two criteria, and at least six
candidates have cleared both the polling and fundraising thresholds,”
with
several more expected to meet both criteria before the first
scheduled debate.
The
last ‘Wow’ Democratic presidential candidates were Gov.
William Jefferson Clinton in 1992 and Sen. Barack Hussein Obama in
2008. Clinton made voters overlook his numerous extra-marital affairs
(which ended the presidential candidacy of Sen. Gary Hart in 1984).
Obama made voters ignore his middle name – Hussein - which
Republicans tried to smear him with by associating him with the Iraqi
dictator, Saddam Hussein. Both strategies failed, and they were
easily elected to the U.S. presidency.
Clinton
and Obama were also able to energize the Democratic youth base and to
reach out to the huge audiences of late night TV. Both likewise had
wives who were major assets at critical times: Clinton, when Hillary
appeared with him on 60 Minutes, the prime time Sunday night TV show,
to refute allegations of marital infidelity, removing it as a
campaign issue, and Obama, when Michelle’s appearances before
African American women’s groups locked in their overwhelming
support, at a time when many black leaders were questioning whether
or not Obama (whose mother was white) was black enough.
The
aforementioned former presidents’ similarly were and are spellbinding orators who connected with liberal, conservative,
Democratic, and Republican voters alike. These complimentary
advantages placed both on a glide path to victory.
Contemporary
Democratic hopefuls for the presidency have little in common, in
political skills and appeal, with the last two Democrats to occupy
the White House. Although it is early in the primary process, the
race is still wide open, despite former Vice President Joe Biden’s
39% ranking, a commanding 20-point lead over his nearest rival. Since
his entry into the race last Thursday, the polls show him leading his
opponents in nearly every group within the Democratic base - African
Americans, whites, minorities, etc.
Biden
is quickly raising large amounts of cash, having outdistanced every
announced candidate in the first 24 hours of his candidacy. But Biden
has been chosen by the participating Democratic electorate largely
because of their angst about the Trump presidency and their perceived
view that Trump and his family are personally corrupt and that he,
Trump, will do anything that financially benefits him and them.
Many
Democrats believe that Biden is the only Democrat who can beat Trump,
and they are currently willing to overlook his past gaffes and
mistakes. According to the Quinnipiac Poll, one of the nation’s
most respected, Biden’s most formidable rivals are:
Sen.
Elizabeth Warren (12%);
Sen.
Bernie Sanders (11%);
Mayor
Pete Buttigieg (10%);
Sen.
Kamala Harris (8%);
former
U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (6%);
Sens.
Cory Booker, and Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Reps. Julian Castro and Tulsi
Gabbard, Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA), and Citizen Andrew Yang all polling
between 0% and 2%.
The
reality is that the weakest candidates in this group are unlikely to
break from the pack, and two of the remaining also-rans, Seth Moulton
and Tim Ryan, lost favor after failing in their insurgency to
overthrow House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, as the Democratic leader.
Let’s examine the top eight competitors in turn.
After
being drummed out of two previous presidential contests in 1988 and
2008, due to plagiarism while in law school and on the campaign trail
and sloppy campaign organizing, Biden, at 76 years of age, has
launched his final bid for the presidency. But like the Uncle Joe of
old, he has other Achilles’ heels - making some women feel
uncomfortable over his intrusion into their personal space over the
years and inappropriate non-sexual touching.
The
Anita Hill controversy during the 1991 Clarence Thomas confirmation
hearing for the Supreme Court was his darkest hour. He has been
unwilling to accept his responsibility in this debacle although he
has been given numerous opportunities to offer Atty. Hill a direct
apology for his handling of the situation. Biden has consistently
refused to accept his failure, as Judiciary Committee Chair, to rein
in the sexist and racist disdain to which she was subjected.
During
his call to Atty. Hill shortly before he got into the race, he
apologized for the incident as if he were an innocent bystander,
rather than offering her his personal regret. In this era of #MeToo,
he will likely pay a political price for his reluctance to express
sincere contrition if he is able to secure the 2020 Democratic
presidential nomination.
Elizabeth
Warren, who has surged in recent weeks, has the best detailed policy
agenda and made an outstanding showing at last week’s “She
the People Summit”
of women of color in Houston, Texas at Historically Black
Texas
Southern University. Her black colleague, Kamala Harris, muffed the
opportunity by being too colloquial in addressing an audience that
was tailor made for her. She still has time to recover from this
blunder with her natural base since the first presidential primaries
are nearly a year away.
Bernie
Sanders, who led in most of the polls prior to Biden’s formal
entrance into the race, is sinking dramatically. Like Biden, he also
refuses to address his liabilities. At the “She
the People Summit,”
he was a disaster! Asked what he would do for black women, he
responded that he was at the 1963 March on Washington and cited
Medicare for All as his solution to the difficulties they experience.
His key campaign staff remains comprised of all white males, and he
apparently sees no reason to adjust to the new demographic Democratic
realities. Bernie is a relic of the past that believed that liberal
white folks could always speak for blacks and other people of color.
Indiana
Mayor, Pete Buttigieg, is the lone bright spot approaching the factor
of ‘Wow.’ He is thoughtful and has been on point in
responding to any questions that come his way. Buttigieg has also
adroitly handled his LGBTQ status, and his husband, Chasten, has
proven to be a significant benefit on the campaign trail. His
shortcomings may be highlighted with a deeper dive into his
relationships with South Bend’s African American community. But
for now, he is on the come up. Buttigieg has eclipsed Beto O’Rourke
as the current political flavor of the month. He is more thoughtful
than Beto, pushing his competitor further down in the polls.
Sens.
Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker are most likely to be waylaid by their
support for charter schools and other private-sector public education
reforms. Klobuchar has been very quiet about her position to date,
while Booker has a long record of loudly championing charter and
voucher schools and demonizing teachers working in public schools. He
has been a leading black face for the corporate Cartel of education
reformers, and now he is diligently trying to hide that fact. Both he
and Klobuchar have to answer to teachers and their unions as the race
progresses, and it is unlikely to end well for either of them. Though
considered a major player when he came into the race, Booker has
virtually no chance of separating himself from the pack because of
his past sins against public education. He is now paying a political
price.
The
remaining 2020 Democratic aspirants, Reps. Castro and Gabbard, Gov.
Inslee, and Andrew Yang who float around 1% in the polls are only
mentioned because they have gained some notice in the polls. The
other minor contenders will be gone after the first primaries or
before. Finally, it would be best if they left the race now, along
with Klobuchar, O’Rourke, and Booker, whose time has not come;
otherwise, the entire group will gum up the 2020 Democratic primary,
fueling Trump’s reelection, unless he stumbles badly.
Nonetheless, the ‘Wow’ is still missing from a generally
lackluster field. Hopefully, things will change soon.
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