Finally,
the midterms are almost over with a few remaining races still to be
decided: Georgia’s gubernatorial race where provisional ballots
are still being counted; Arizona and Mississippi’s U.S. Senate
races, with the latter headed to a runoff; and several House races in
California to close to call. Republicans flipped Democratic Senate
seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, and still have
a pick-up opportunity in Arizona, increasing their majority to 55 or
56. These victories provide Trump with a firmer cushion against
impeachment.
The
Farrell Report had a mixed record in its midterm predictions,
projecting that the Democrats would seize the House (they did), that
incumbents Joe Donnelly (D-IN) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO) would hold
on (they didn’t); that Democrats would pick up governorships in
Florida and Georgia (they didn’t); that they would win
governor’s races in Michigan and Wisconsin (they did); and in
several other states (Illinois, Kansas, Maine, New Mexico, and
Nevada). It had correctly noted that Democrats’ chances of
regaining control of the Senate was an outside chance, and
appropriately forecasted that Beto O’Rourke (D) would win or
run a tight race with Ted Cruz (R) in the Texas Senate race.
Democrats
took the House and are projected to win more than 35 seats when the
final tallies are completed. Women increased their numbers to 100 in
Congress, the largest number of female Congressional officeholders in
history. In addition to a record number of females being elected to
federal office, we also witnessed two Muslim women and the first two
Native American women (one of whom identifies as a lesbian) elected
to the House and an openly gay male chosen as Governor of Colorado.
But most important is that women powered the Democratic House
takeover - powered by teachers - with victories in Republican
strongholds of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and upsets of veteran
Republicans in California, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and
several other states.
Trump’s
personally trumpeted his tropes of anti-Semitism, xenophobia, white
nationalism, misogyny, black racism, anti-immigrant and
anti-Constitutional rhetoric throughout the nation in frenzy during
the final month of the midterm campaigns. He also attacked losing
Republican House and Senate incumbents in his first press conference
in the immediate aftermath because they refused to bow to his will,
become his “belly warmers,” or kiss his ring. In
a clearly staged show of authoritarianism at that press conference,
Trump harshly criticized an African American reporter from PBS News,
called her question racist, and a Hispanic journalist from CNN who he
personally attacked. The White House later suspended the press pass
of the latter to show who is in charge and that it will not tolerate
dissent.
But
what was refreshing about the midterms, was the overall message that
most Americans do not embrace the racist, anti-Semitic,
anti-Immigrant, misogynistic values that were publicized incessantly
by Trump. Yet as the Senate outcomes confirmed, there is a solid
tolerance for these attitudes and the way he is running the country.
Democrats must more forcefully demonstrate their opposition to these
views while at the same time attending to the legitimate concerns of
those working middle and upper - class Americans who loudly (the
former) and quietly (the latter, middle- and upper- classes) vote for
Trump and his Republican allies.
Democrats
need to hone their messages as well. It is imperative that they
carefully assess why they lost a high profile governor’s race
and a U.S. Senate race in in which they were favored in Florida.
Clearly, race played a significant role for the African American
gubernatorial candidate, but Trump’s reassuring economic
policies also played a major part as the state’s large retiree
population was attracted to them despite the Republican candidates
trafficking of virulent anti-black racism and anti-Semitism.
In
Georgia, where the Republican is currently leading the female African
American Democratic candidate for Governor, race and egregious voter
suppression by her opponent, who is the current Secretary of State
and oversees the election process, has manipulated it to his
advantage. Democrats need to determine how best to frame their
social and economic policies and how to combat racism in electoral
practices as their base is becoming more racially and ethnically
diverse, and voter repression will surely escalate.
Since
Trump has come out swinging after the midterms, firing Attorney
General Jeff Sessions and installing a flunky replacement who will
fire or restrict the duties of Special Counsel Robert Mueller,
Democrats must be strategic in their responses. They need to be
patient and not fall into Trump’s trap of creating a scenario
where he pits himself as the victim against the radical, left-wing
Democrats. They must also be willing to vigorously confront him as
he is likely to deliberately trample on decency, ethics, and the
Constitution in order to push his dictatorial agenda.
But
most important is that the House Democrats avoid a raucous and
divisive debate for the Speakership. Nancy Pelosi is clearly the
best choice to continue leading them. Her prodigious fundraising
which enabled the Democrats to dominate the midterms by funding
candidates who said they would not vote for her to become Speaker
again is indicative of her leadership qualities—doing what was
best for the team. Pelosi has no peer in the current Democratic
Caucus, and not one of the newly elected Democrats is ready to lead
the battle against Trump who will pull out all stops to crush them.
Since
she has already stated that she will lead a transition to new
Democratic House leadership this term, the Caucus should watch and
learn.
In
the interim, Democrats must place extra effort on cultivating their
base—millennials; women, especially teachers; and minorities so
that they do not have to make a last minute push or depend on
candidates’ ethnicity to drive turnout in future key races,
especially as the 2020 presidential campaign is rapidly approaching.
We can be certain that Trump will be ready as he will learn from his
2018 mistakes and recalibrate.
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