Trump
Updates to the Midterms:
It
is widely believed that the Democrats are riding a blue political
wave that will drive Republicans to minority status in the House and
possibly the Senate in 2019. This view is supposedly affirmed by a
series of generic polls that indicate that Americans prefer Democrats
over Republicans in state and national elections. Democratic leaders
are embracing these findings and are developing an agenda to reshape
the political landscape once they take charge. It is ironic that on
October 16, 2016, based on the polls at that time, Hillary Clinton
was measuring drapes for the Oval Office as everyone was assured that
she would be elected President, nearly four weeks before the actual
election.
It
appears to be d�j� vu all over again as
Democrats are engaged in the same political overreach, 26 days before
the midterms. Some are planning for the impeachment of President
Trump and have now added newly minted Justice Kavanaugh to the
equation because they are convinced he is a sexual predator whose
crimes Republicans covered up during his vetting process.
At
this point, it would be wise for Democratic leaders to abandon these
notions and to concentrate on those factors that could actually lead
them to victory: a clear message to energize their key constituent
groups; an examination of those barriers to voting registration and
voting; and a heavily funded and focused organizing process on the
ground to get-out-the-vote (GOTV) on November 6th.
In
this eleventh hour before the midterm elections, Democrats are in
political disarray. As noted repeatedly during the past months, they
have not established a clear and comprehensive message that brings
their key supporters together—young people, minorities, the
middle class, and women. Many of these individuals are members of
sub-groups and need messages that interest them in particular. For
example, among women, teachers, a large and active constituency, need
Democrats to re-iterate their commitment to collective bargaining and
improved working conditions as they are under siege, especially in
Red states, where Republicans are attempting to turn them into
contingency workers with low wages and limited benefits.
Minority
groups and youth are being oppressed with discrimination and crushing
student debt, and the middle-class has been victimized by the
so-called tax reforms that favor the one percent and while being
subjected to a higher tax burden. Unfortunately, several erstwhile
Democratic presidential aspirants are using and have used the
explosive sexual assault allegations against then Judge Brett
Kavanaugh, by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, as a platform to advance
their presidential ambitions, raising money for their campaigns and
visiting Iowa, site of the first presidential primary.
But
even more disturbing is the Democrats ignoring the Republicans in
their ongoing design of barriers to voting: making it difficult to
register to vote; purging voter rolls of minority and low-income
voters; making voter IDs more difficult to obtain; reducing the
number of weekend days for early voting; decreasing the number of
voting precincts in minority neighborhoods and on college campuses;
and requiring college students to vote in their home states. These
schemes were the key factors in Republicans winning the 2000 and 2004
presidential elections in Florida and Ohio, respectively, and in
several state and federal legislative bodies. Democrats have paid
scant attention to these electoral ploys which have enabled
Republicans rise to power.
However,
the Democrats seem to be once again relying on their standing in the
polls and the enthusiasm of their voters as they have begun their
victory laps for the November 6th election rather than
organizing on the ground.
At
present, Republicans are better positioned in organizing their voters
to turn out, and their enthusiasm is surging as Trump travels the
country mouthing a mantra of us against them—Republicans v.
Democrats. Meanwhile, several Democrats are preening to become
President of the United States (POTUS).
Thus,
Democrats are once again relying on polls rather than doing the
gritty work of organizing their voters to show up on Election Day.
Nonetheless, some Democratic candidates have been organizing to get
out their base: Stacey Abrams, Andrew Gillum, and Ben Jealous
African American gubernatorial candidates in Georgia, Florida, and
Maryland, respectively, and Beto O’Rourke, U.S. Senate
candidate in Texas. They know from experience since all four are
running in Republican-controlled states that their only route to
victory is to physically turn out their base voters in extraordinary
numbers.
Elsewhere,
Ayanna Pressley and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, candidates for the U.S.
House of Representatives in Boston and New York City, used aggressive
GOTV organizations to defeat long-term Democratic incumbents in
primary races. As a consequence, they are effectively guaranteed
election to the House in their general elections in overwhelmingly
Democratic districts.
If
the Democrats do not address these issues, the Republicans will
triumph in the midterms and will hold on to their power, allowing
President Trump to continue running amuck.
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