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Trump
Updates to the Midterms:
President
Donald Trump is on the ropes in recent polls with regard to his
personal approval for the job he is doing, but the nation remains
solidly in favor of Republicans managing the economy. Thus it would
behoove Democrats to follow the money in terms of how they plan
their final two-month campaign strategy.
Trump
is continuing to reel from Bob Woodward’s breakout bestseller,
“Fear,” in which the dysfunctionality inside the White
House is on full display. It is becoming clear that Woodward may be
close to ending the career of another President after taking the
point on forcing the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974.
The
Republicans are experiencing the “best of times and the
worst of times …” as we approach the 2018 midterms.
Their leader, Donald Trump, is causing success and failure for the
party. He has boosted them with his anti-immigrant, misogynistic,
and racist tweets which are red meat to his and the Republicans’
base. Trump has locked into working-class white fears of the
nation’s move toward becoming a pluralistic country where
Americans of color are rapidly becoming a majority. Although these
tactics are reviled in some quarters of the electorate, Trump has
taken the heat for these outbursts which allows Republicans House and
Senate members to largely escape blame.
In
addition, with a robust economy buttressed by job and wage growth and
a booming stock market, the Republican’s fervent base has been
joined by the Independents (despite a decline of late), some
moderates, and dissident Democrats who are attracted by these
economic improvements. Furthermore, Republicans continue to march in
lockstep behind the party agenda laid out by Majority Leader Mitch
McConnell and departing Speaker Paul Ryan. The Democrats are
experiencing intra-party squabbles between its more liberal
Progressive wing and the Party’s old-line leaders, and they
continue to be unable to agree to rally behind a common plan for the
future.
Another
benefit for Republicans is that former President Barack Obama has hit
the campaign trail for the Democrats. However, he was unable to
increase the turnout of Democratic voters at a significant level in
either of the midterms during his eight-year presidency or for
Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. His presence on
the campaign trail was only effective when his name was on the
ballot. Therefore, Obama is likely to further energize Trump’s
base as Trump will most certainly frame it as an attack on him and
them much as Hillary’s reference to them as “a basket
of deplorables” did during the 2016 presidential campaign.
That designation stuck and was the decisive issue in their
significant turnout in her narrow losses in Michigan, Pennsylvania,
and Wisconsin--in the low single digits.
Meanwhile,
the GOP is gaining strength in its efforts to fight back against
Voter ID suits in North Carolina and other states where their
redistricting gerrymandering was challenged. Combining these
strategies with their other underhanded political tactics may give
them an edge to hold the House and the Senate by depressing the votes
of minorities.
Nonetheless,
the blue wave could still take place if the Democrats ever take their
eyes off what the polls say and get back to old fashioned
politics—identifying their voters, giving them a coherent
message which incorporates their views and interests, spending
millions of dollars and mobilizing millions of volunteers to get them
out on election day as did Obama when his name was on the ballot.
Even though the Democratic National Committee (DNC) claims to be
employing these methods, only the Progressive candidates have been
implementing them aggressively, which has resulted in their upset of
two, twenty-year House liberal veterans, Mike Capuano (D-MA 7th District) and Joe Crowley (D-NY 14 14th District).
And the small group of
House Democrats pushing for Trump’s impeachment is also an
assist for him and the Republicans. Trump is playing the victim
card, and that issue could be the determining factor in who wins the
Florida, Georgia, and Maryland gubernatorial elections where African
Americans are on the ballot as Democrats. Trump’s race and
anti-immigrant tropes could push Republicans to victory in all
instances as neither of these states has ever elected a black to that
position.
Maryland,
in particular, has a history of white Democrats not supporting Blacks
for governor or the U.S. Senate despite no white Democrat being able
to win either position without a substantial African American vote.
If Republicans hold the House and Senate and several governorships,
it may be time for voters of color to pursue the Progressives’
plan for electing candidates responsive to their concerns.
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